Jason Wells’ Bracketology NCAA Bubble Watch March 5

American Athletic

Locks: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Memphis, SMU

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Atlantic 10

Locks: George Washington, Massachusetts, Saint Louis, Virginia Commonwealth

Should be in: Saint Joseph’s

Teams on the Bubble:

Dayton (RPI #47 SOS 64 NC SOS 97)
4-5 vs teams in the field
Wins/Losses games remaining: (2) Win both games this week.
Chances for an at large bid: 49%
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ACC

Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia

Teams Should Be In: Pittsburgh

Teams on the Bubble:

Florida State (RPI #57 SOS 36 NC SOS 106)

3-7 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining (2) Swept this week.
Chances for an at large bid: 23%
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Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas

Teams Should Be In: Baylor, Okahoma State

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Big East

Locks: Creighton, Villanova

Teams Should Be In: Xavier

Teams on the Bubble:

Providence (RPI #51 SOS 79 NC SOS 186)
3-5 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining (1) Sweating
Chances for an at large bid: 22%

Georgetown (RPI #56 SOS 23 NC SOS 28)
8-9 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (1) Sweating.
Chances for an at large bid: 16%

St. John’s (RPI #63 SOS 43 NC SOS 130)
1-7 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (1) Sweating
Chances for an at large bid: 10%

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Big 10

Locks: Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Teams On The Bubble

Minnesota (RPI #46 SOS 3 NC SOS 31)
3-8 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (2) Must win the remaining games.
Chances for an at large bid: 54%

Nebraska (RPI #59 SOS 37 NC SOS 86)
3-7 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (2) Can’t lose this week.
Chances for an at large bid: 32%
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Pacific 12

Locks: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, UCLA

Should be in: Oregon

Teams on the Bubble:

Stanford (RPI #41 SOS 16  NC SOS 63)

6-9 vs the field

Win/Losses games remaining: (1) Stop losing need one win and the Pac-12 tournament win.

Chances for an at large bid: 92%

California (RPI #54 SOS 45 NC SOS 121)
5-8 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (2) California hurts their chances by going 0-2 can’t lose anymore.
Chances for an at large bid: 66%
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SEC

Locks: Florida, Kentucky

Teams on the bubble:

Tennessee (RPI #49 SOS 15 NC SOS 38)
3-5 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (2) Tennessee must win both games.
Chances for an at large bid: 30%

Missouri (RPI #52 SOS 89 NC SOS 169)
4-2 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (2) Sweating
Chances for an at large bid: 39%

Arkansas (RPI #58 SOS 80 NC SOS 198)
5-6 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (2) Arkansas has what it takes to be in the dance but take care of your next 2 games.
Chances for an at large bid: 49%

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West Coast

Locks: BYU, Gonzaga

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Other Conferences

Locks: Wichita State

Teams on the Bubble:

Southern Mississippi (RPI #37 SOS 159 NC SOS 168)
1-2 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (2) Must win out and lose in the Conference USA Championship game.
Chances for an at large bid: 38%

North Dakota State (RPI #44 SOS 119 NC SOS 15)
2-1 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining (0) Summit Championship loss still could get them in.
Chances for an at large bid: 34%
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Breakdown of the bubble teams

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Auo-VV8zL2EfdDVRS3cxWWhpMFNheVZXY09uWTZFWEE&output=html

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